Home > Breaking News, WHO, World > WHO predicts ‘explosion’ of swine flu cases

WHO predicts ‘explosion’ of swine flu cases

By GILLIAN WONG (AP)

BEIJING — The global spread of swine flu will endanger more lives as it speeds up in coming months and governments must boost preparations for a swift response, the World Health Organization said Friday.

There will soon be a period of further global spread of the virus, and most countries may see swine flu cases double every three to four days for several months until peak transmission is reached, said WHO’s Western Pacific director, Shin Young-soo.

“At a certain point, there will seem to be an explosion in case numbers,” Shin told a symposium of health officials and experts in Beijing. “It is certain there will be more cases and more deaths.”

WHO has declared the swine flu strain a pandemic, and it has killed almost 1,800 people worldwide through last week. International attention has focused on how the pandemic is progressing in southern hemisphere countries such as Australia, which are experiencing winter and their flu season.

But it is in developing countries where the accelerated spread of swine flu poses the greatest threat as it places underequipped and underfunded health systems under severe strain, Shin said.

WHO earlier estimated that as many as 2 billion people could become infected over the next two years — nearly one-third of the world’s population.

Health officials and drug makers are looking into ways to speed up production of a vaccine before the northern hemisphere enters its flu season in coming months. Estimates for when a vaccine will be available range from September to December.

Delegates from Bangladesh and Myanmar appealed for help in procuring vaccines or making them more affordable for poorer countries, saying they were left vulnerable while rich nations pre-ordered most of the available stock.

“Developing countries like us, we have to fight this war without vaccines,” said Mya Oo, deputy health minister of Myanmar. He urged pharmaceutical companies to consider selling the vaccines to developing countries at just above cost.

WHO’s flu chief, Keiji Fukuda, said the agency was working hard on the issue, and noted that two drug makers had pledged to donate 150 million doses of vaccine to poorer countries by the end of October. He said more research was needed to determine how vaccines will be priced.

“Among the many pandemic response issues, this is probably the most critical issue: how we mobilize the vaccines, how we get them to developing countries,” Fukuda said.

WHO has stressed that most cases of swine flu are mild and require no treatment, but the fear is that a rash of new infections could overwhelm hospitals and health authorities, especially in poorer countries.

Shin said governments must act quickly to educate the public, prepare their health systems to care for severe cases and protect those deemed more vulnerable to prevent unnecessary deaths.

“We only have a short time period to reach the state of preparedness deemed necessary,” Shin said. “Communities must be aware before a pandemic strikes as to what they can do to reduce the spread of the virus, and how to obtain early treatment of severe cases.”

Pregnant women face a higher risk of complications, and the virus also has more severe effects on people with underlying medical conditions such as asthma, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, autoimmune disorders and diabetes, WHO chief Margaret Chan said in a video address.

The last pandemic — the Hong Kong flu of 1968 — killed about 1 million people. Ordinary flu kills about 250,000 to 500,000 people each year.

Swine flu is also continuing to spread during summer in the northern hemisphere. Normally, flu viruses disappear with warm weather, but swine flu is proving to be resilient.

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  1. antelopone
    August 22nd, 2009 at 13:08 | #1

    CURE FOR H1F1 FLU FOUND: $22/yr NATURAL CURE MAKES VACCINE OBSOLETE by J.E. Ante

    A natural cure for the H1N1 flu virus is known to be 5000 IU per day vitamin D3 supplements in Winter months or 30 minute full spectrum light therapy to stimulate vitamin D3 production in the skin during Winter. The cost for a year’s supply is just $22 per person or $6.6 Billion dollars for 300 million Americans.

    Flu, colds, and many other viral diseases peak in the 6 months of the year in which sunlight is less plentiful and when sunlight is not strong enough to make vitamin D3 in the skin of man.

    Every year the public is bombarded by drug company sponsored articles overstating the harm of the coming flu season. It is reported that 200,000 people in the US will be hospitalized and 36,000 people will die every year of the flu. And it is implied that a super virus is on the way someday that will kill millions so definitely get your flu shot this year.

    But the actual statistics from the CDC shows only 1,138 deaths from the flu alone. The additional 34,000 deaths reported are added “influenza-associated” deaths from pneumonia and heart disease. So these deaths are added to the flu deaths even though pneumonia and heart disease are totally different primary causes of death and unrelated to the flu. Pneumonia is a viral lung disease and is often tested for and confirmed. But the flu virus is not tested for and confirmed in these 34,000 additional deaths and yet it is added to the flu deaths. And if you have a heart attack and also happen to have flu or pneumonia like symptoms these deaths are added to the flu related deaths. Even though the flu is not tested for nor verified as present in these heart disease death.

    The drug companies have long had a medical monopoly in America. And selling flu vaccines to the USA and the rest of the world has become a major income stream in recent years. But with the current wholesale CDC misstatement of flu deaths and mass marketing of flu vaccines to the public the public is being used and mislead for simple profits.

    A cardiac surgeon and professor of surgery at the University of Washingtom, Donald Miller, MD wrote that. “There is also a lack of evidence that young children benefit from flu shots. A systematic review of 51 studies involving 260,000 children age 6 to 23 months found no evidence that the flu vaccine is any more effective than a placebo (Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2006;1:CD004879).”

    Two thirds of the flu vaccine contain 25 micrograms of mercury which is 250 times more than the EPA safety limit. Mercury is a neurotoxin which is 1,000 times more toxic than lead. So why is mercury still in any vaccine product?

    The answer to that question is probably extensive legal liability to the drug manufacturers. Mercury is being phased out of childhood vaccines because of concerns it causes autism and brain damage in young children especially when their defenses are down and mercury crosses the blood-brain barrier. But this is also a widespread problem in adult vaccines which might be the cause of the epidemic in Alzheimers, Parkinson’s, and sharp memory decline in adults. Might we all be slightly brain damaged each shot or vaccine we take with the mercury and aluminum compounds being injected directly into our bodies and bypassing the bodies natural defenses? And might this accumulated effect in old age be what we call Alzheimers, Parkinson’s, and age-related memory loss?

    The answer to the problem is widespread amnesty for the drug companies from the massive legal liability from mercury and aluminum poisoning. The drug companies will have to use other less toxic preservative in vaccines and end mercury and aluminum use. To end this controversy and the possible continued harm to the population would be worth this amnesty. It may take many more years of legal action and legislative action to end mercury and aluminum usage so this is the best way to end the greatest harm in the quickest amount of time.

    Of the 34,000 deaths caused by heart disease and pneumonia and listed as flu related these deaths will likely be greatly reduced with 5000 IU of vitamin D3. Vitamin D is the primary immune elevating hormone in the body and so if this hormone is kept high in Winter months these diseases will be greatly reduced as in the Summer months when vitamin D in naturally high.

    Vitamin D3 greatly affects all major disease categories especially cancer which would be cut in half by optimal year round vitamin D3 levels. Full spectrum lighting is the best vitamin D supplement form of all because it is complete vitamin D nutrition and all the intrinsic factors for full absorption are included in full spectrum lighting.

    The marketing of medical products is full of misinformation and incorrect data so that companies can market their products at a profit and continue to do business. But maybe this is an area the public cannot trust to others with a profit motive. The misinformation and manipulation of the public is too great and has become harmful. It is time to end the drug companies’ medical monopoly in America and the selling of vaccines and drugs for profit. This is an area too critical and too important to trust others to virtually self regulate themselves and have complete control over in our lives. — J.E. Ante

  1. August 22nd, 2009 at 05:09 | #1
  2. August 23rd, 2009 at 13:15 | #2
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